Outlook 2027
Five papers from our editors on what will shape higher education in North America in 2027. Data-led, sourced line by line, and written for the people who run universities.
The 2025 federal endowment tax replaces a flat 1.4% levy with tiers of up to 8%, set by wealth per eligible student. Size, wealth and international enrolment now decide which US institutions pay, and how much.
8% Top endowment tax rate, at $2,000,000 or more per student (enacted 2025)
Download the paper (PDF)The United States issued a third fewer F-1 visas in 2025 and Canada approved about a quarter of its new-student target. For universities in North America planning 2027 intakes, record totals and policy ceilings both overstate what is likely to arrive.
-17% Fall in new international enrolment at US institutions, fall 2025 snapshot
Download the paper (PDF)Students and a growing share of staff now use generative AI routinely, while institutional policy, training and investment trail behind. Survey evidence shows where the gap is widest, who is most exposed and what leaders in North America must decide in 2027.
85% of students used generative AI for coursework in previous 12 months (July 2025)
Download the paper (PDF)In fiscal 2026, US federal research money flowed through far fewer awards: NIH funded about 56,600 grants against roughly 64,000 in FY2024, and NSF made about 6,200 new awards. Canada has protected its granting councils and is paying to recruit international researchers.
about 56,600 NIH extramural grants funded in FY2026, against roughly 64,000 in FY2024
Download the paper (PDF)University presidents face federal scrutiny, lost international revenue, strained aid operations and uncertain compliance, and turnover among public university presidents rose in 2025. Most boards are evaluating or changing their business models, but many lack a plan they trust.
74% Presidents extremely concerned about the federal administration's impact on higher education, Fall 2025
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