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Outlook 2027

Outlook 2027: East Asia and Pacific edition

Five papers from our editors on what will shape higher education in East Asia and Pacific in 2027. Data-led, sourced line by line, and written for the people who run universities.

Richard DaviesPolicy, finance and quality

Australia freezes its 2027 student planning level at 295,000 as the visa bill climbs

Australia's 2027 National Planning Level for new international students stays at 295,000, and the government's own projection says commencements will fall short of it. The pressure on university finance comes instead from rising visa charges, a cross-subsidy model and revenue concentrated in few hands.

295,000 National Planning Level for new international commencements, calendar 2027, unchanged from 2026

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Rachel SmithRecruitment, international and students

Asia's new hubs: Japan and Korea pass their targets early as Hong Kong lifts its caps

Japan and South Korea have passed their headline international student targets ahead of schedule, and Hong Kong has raised its non-local cap twice in two years. The harder tests now are degree-level growth, retention and source diversity, which volume alone cannot deliver.

408,069 International students in Japan on JASSO's broad count, 1 May 2025

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Sarah WilliamsonTeaching, digital and AI, and the academic workforce

The race to teach AI: China mandates it for every university student while neighbours hedge

China's April 2026 plan sets AI as a foundation course for all university students; more than 600 universities have launched AI undergraduate programmes. Elsewhere, Japan relies on voluntary certification and Australia on guidance, while South Korea has retreated from a schools mandate.

600+ Chinese universities with AI undergraduate programmes as of 2026, up from 35 in 2018

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Scott JamesResearch, innovation and industry

East Asia's R&D growth is led by companies, not universities, and that changes collaboration

Japan and South Korea grew R&D faster than the OECD area in 2024 and China passed the OECD intensity average in 2025, yet companies account for most of the spending. Universities will need to collaborate with firms and regional hubs, not wait for public money.

3.93 trillion yuan China's total R&D expenditure in 2025, up 8.2% year on year

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Abigail TaylorLeadership, governance, campus and civic role

Tuition-dependent private universities in Korea, Japan and Taiwan face the demographic cliff first

Births hit record lows in Japan and Taiwan in 2025, and university intake is shrinking faster than institutions are closing. Private, tuition-dependent universities outside state-backed groups are most exposed, and their window to merge, shrink or reinvent is narrowing.

53% Japanese private universities that failed to fill freshman quotas, fiscal 2025

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