Outlook 2027
Five papers from our editors on what will shape higher education in Europe in 2027. Data-led, sourced line by line, and written for the people who run universities.
The Commission's proposed €175 billion for FP10 in 2028-34 is a nominal rise but short of the sector's €200 billion ask, and the final figure awaits the MFF deal. Meanwhile EU public education spending fell as a share of GDP between 2014 and 2023.
€175bn Commission's proposed FP10 budget for 2028-2034, not yet agreed
Download the paper (PDF)UK and US indicators of international recruitment have turned sharply down while Germany and France report steady gains. Europe's capacity to absorb displaced demand is limited by an intra-European student pool, housing shortages and Dutch-style caps on English-taught provision.
426,200 International students and doctoral candidates in Germany, winter semester 2025/26, up about 6%
Download the paper (PDF)The Digital Omnibus moved the AI Act's high-risk deadline for education uses, including assessment and admissions, to 2 December 2027. With AI literacy and transparency duties already in force and deployer standards still missing, the next 13 months are a build period, not a reprieve.
2 Dec 2027 Annex III high-risk deadline for education uses, moved from 2 August 2026
Download the paper (PDF)US-based applicants to ERC Starting Grants rose sharply in 2026 and won at a higher rate than the field. But non-Europeans took about 5% of awards, and the bigger story for European universities is how much harder every grant has become to win.
169 US-based ERC Starting Grant applicants in 2026, up from 116 in 2025
Download the paper (PDF)Europe's university alliances now number 65, but the newest grants run for only two years and EUA does not expect a full European degree at scale before 2030. Whether alliances change how universities are governed depends on choices member boards make before 2028.
65 Alliances the Commission says the initiative supports, July 2026
Download the paper (PDF)Free for university and sector professionals. Tell us who you are and the five papers unlock straight away. We will also send you the Signal Brief; every email has a one-step unsubscribe.
Looking for another region? Every edition is listed above.
